Sat, Feb 25, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Anaheim Ducks 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 15 | 23 | 316 |
| CAR | 013 | 022 | 218 | 253 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:18ANAJohn KlingbergAssists: Trevor Zegras, Ryan Strome · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P3 4:06ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Ryan Strome, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 4:19CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 12:01ANATroy TerryGWGAssists: Isac Lundeström, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 13:35CARJesper FastAssists: Brett Pesce, Jordan Staal · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:38CARBrett Pesce: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:54CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:21ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Holding2 min
- P2 17:49ANASam Carrick: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:13CARBrady Skjei: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:37ANAMason McTavish: Interference2 min
- P3 17:42ANARyan Strome: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Zegras
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Silfverberg – Strome – Zegras8:07
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 6–9goals 2–0
- Terry – Jones – McTavish10:39
xG 0.43–0.72 (38%)attempts 6–11goals 0–2
- Grant – Carrick – Comtois8:55
xG 0.05–0.44 (11%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
- Megna – Vatrano – Lundeström8:07
xG 0.16–0.57 (21%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fowler – Klingberg2:10
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Fowler13:37
xG 0.67–0.84 (45%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Beaulieu13:33
xG 0.40–0.68 (37%)attempts 8–19goals 2–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Svechnikov – Jarvis12:00
xG 0.94–0.52 (65%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Necas – Kotkaniemi11:33
xG 0.41–0.04 (91%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Stastny – Stepan – Noesen6:37
xG 0.36–0.05 (88%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook10:26
xG 0.61–0.32 (65%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin17:34
xG 1.47–0.05 (97%)attempts 27–3goals 1–0
- de Haan – Chatfield11:33
xG 0.50–0.22 (69%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Skjei – Pesce16:20
xG 0.74–0.74 (50%)attempts 21–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).