Sat, Feb 25, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Boston Bruins 3, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 220 | 08 | 17 | 335 |
| VAN | 07 | 010 | 110 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:08BOSHampus LindholmPPAssists: David Krejci, Taylor Hall · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 19:25BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 7:24VANBrock BoeserAssists: Conor Garland · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 19:12BOSLinus UllmarkENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:54BOSDerek Forbort: Holding2 min
- P1 15:21VANGuillaume Brisebois: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:00VANConor Garland: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:14BOSCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:08VANChristian Wolanin: Holding2 min
- P2 13:18BOSTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Aman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk9:07
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha11:45
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Coyle – Hall – Frederic8:42
xG 0.31–0.45 (40%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hathaway – Nosek7:40
xG 0.09–0.39 (18%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo11:53
xG 0.49–0.06 (89%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy13:46
xG 0.46–0.34 (57%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Orlov – Lindholm2:48
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDries – Podkolzin – Räty6:34
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Pettersson – Kuzmenko11:58
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Joshua – Studnicka – Aman9:08
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Garland8:58
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Wolanin8:14
xG 0.51–0.13 (80%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Wolanin – Hughes2:02
xG 0.20–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Brisebois3:41
xG 0.22–0.04 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).