Sat, Feb 25, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 0, New Jersey Devils 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 011 | 05 | 07 | 023 |
| NJD | 06 | 316 | 414 | 736 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:59NJDJonas SiegenthalerGWGAssists: Miles Wood · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 8:35NJDJack HughesAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 19:00NJDDawson MercerAssists: Nico Hischier · Slap, 0.32 xG0–3
- P3 4:05NJDNico HischierAssists: John Marino, Ryan Graves · Snap, 0.05 xG0–4
- P3 5:16NJDDougie HamiltonAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler, Michael McLeod · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–5
- P3 13:49NJDJesper BrattAssists: Jack Hughes, Yegor Sharangovich · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–6
- P3 16:00NJDNathan BastianAssists: Kevin Bahl, Tomas Tatar · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:04NJDJohn Marino: Holding2 min
- P1 17:33NJDDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:45NJDMichael McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:45PHINick Seeler: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:00PHIMorgan Frost: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTippett – Farabee – Desnoyers4:16
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Laughton – Frost – Lycksell2:41
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Brown – Bellows7:44
xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Laughton – Lycksell – Desnoyers6:06
xG 0.31–0.50 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Braun – Seeler11:01
xG 0.38–0.50 (44%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Sanheim15:19
xG 0.67–0.82 (45%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Provorov17:16
xG 0.38–1.58 (19%)attempts 9–25goals 0–2
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Hischier – Mercer12:02
xG 1.34–0.31 (81%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod10:06
xG 0.50–0.10 (84%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- Bratt – Sharangovich – Hughes11:50
xG 1.09–1.06 (51%)attempts 14–18goals 2–0
- Haula – Palat – Boqvist9:40
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Bahl15:34
xG 1.67–0.48 (78%)attempts 19–12goals 2–0
- Graves – Marino15:59
xG 0.73–0.26 (74%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler16:46
xG 1.27–1.11 (53%)attempts 23–22goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).