Sat, Feb 25, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 021 | 112 | 113 | 12 | 348 |
| STL | 07 | 110 | 19 | 01 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:23STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Robert Thomas, Justin Faulk · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 6:59PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Bryan Rust, Marcus Pettersson · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 14:32PITMarcus PetterssonAssists: Teddy Blueger, Drew O'Connor · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 17:33STLJustin FaulkAssists: Alexey Toropchenko, Sammy Blais · Poke, 0.06 xG2–2
- OT 1:16PITBryan RustGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Jeff Petry · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:12PITJason Zucker: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 10:47STLJordan Kyrou: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:26PITDanton Heinen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:38STLJustin Faulk: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Zucker – Rust9:38
xG 1.45–0.26 (85%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Carter – McGinn – Heinen10:25
xG 0.68–0.13 (84%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel13:20
xG 1.17–0.70 (63%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
- Archibald – Blueger – O'Connor7:23
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin18:40
xG 1.95–0.77 (72%)attempts 33–15goals 0–1
- Joseph – Rutta9:30
xG 0.95–0.08 (92%)attempts 19–3goals 0–0
- Petry – Pettersson16:09
xG 1.01–0.61 (62%)attempts 18–16goals 2–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBlais – Brown – Toropchenko4:21
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Buchnevich – Barbashev – Thomas12:39
xG 0.87–0.93 (48%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Walker – Blais – Brown2:15
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Walker – Toropchenko2:14
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Tucker2:20
xG 0.25–0.03 (88%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Leddy – Faulk4:22
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Krug – Parayko2:40
xG 0.06–0.08 (44%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).