Sun, Feb 26, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
New York Islanders 4, Winnipeg Jets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 112 | 28 | 14 | 424 |
| WPG | 01 | 014 | 08 | 023 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:56NYIBo HorvatSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 4:22NYIAlexander RomanovAssists: Casey Cizikas, Hudson Fasching · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 18:41NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 17:59NYIAdam PelechENAssists: Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.34 xG4–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:22WPGBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:44NYISebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:47NYIBo Horvat: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:59NYIScott Mayfield: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:59WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:00NYIAlexander Romanov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMartin – Cizikas – Fasching10:42
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Lee – Horvat – Holmstrom10:13
xG 0.29–0.21 (57%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Bailey – Koivula – Durandeau6:39
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Parise – Palmieri – Nelson9:04
xG 0.33–0.48 (41%)attempts 3–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAho – Dobson9:23
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech14:44
xG 0.54–0.31 (64%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Pulock – Aho2:11
xG 0.04–0.03 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers8:17
xG 0.62–0.05 (92%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Connor – Dubois8:18
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 15–6goals 0–2
- Lowry – Maenalanen – Jonsson-Fjallby2:30
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Dubois2:19
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Morrissey7:48
xG 0.29–0.06 (82%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Samberg3:07
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk15:03
xG 0.67–0.64 (51%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).