Mon, Feb 27, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vancouver Canucks 5, Dallas Stars 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 311 | 13 | 06 | 11 | 521 |
| DAL | 19 | 220 | 19 | 00 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:27VANAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Elias Pettersson, Andrei Kuzmenko · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 8:37DALJamie BennSHAssists: Tyler Seguin · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 9:00VANSheldon DriesPPAssists: Conor Garland, Christian Wolanin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 15:03VANVasily PodkolzinAssists: Aatu Räty, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 4:33DALEvgenii DadonovAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P2 11:28VANAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Quinn Hughes, Andrei Kuzmenko · Snap, 0.15 xG4–2
- P2 17:46DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 3:25DALNils LundkvistAssists: Mason Marchment, Ty Dellandrea · Snap, 0.05 xG4–4
- OT 0:48VANAndrei KuzmenkoGWGAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Quinn Hughes · Deflected, 0.14 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:57DALRoope Hintz: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:50DALTy Dellandrea: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:22VANBrock Boeser: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:12VANNoah Juulsen: Kneeing2 min
- P2 17:28VANJack Studnicka: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:30VANElias Pettersson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:39DALJason Robertson: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:47VANQuinn Hughes: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Aman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Beauvillier – Pettersson – Kuzmenko10:28
xG 0.65–0.61 (52%)attempts 10–14goals 2–0
- Dries – Podkolzin – Räty2:23
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- Boeser – Studnicka – Kravtsov5:44
xG 0.09–0.35 (20%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Joshua – Garland – Aman11:04
xG 0.19–0.53 (26%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Hughes3:37
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Juulsen – Hughes11:42
xG 0.37–0.38 (50%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Burroughs – Brisebois3:01
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:01
xG 0.75–0.25 (75%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Seguin – Marchment – Dellandrea10:46
xG 0.81–0.43 (66%)attempts 16–6goals 1–2
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston8:53
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Faksa – Olofsson – Karlstrom6:01
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Heiskanen12:22
xG 0.81–0.18 (82%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Lundkvist8:27
xG 0.45–0.08 (84%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Hakanpää – Heiskanen4:42
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).