Tue, Feb 28, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 15 | 06 | 06 | 117 |
| OTT | 416 | 13 | 18 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:50DETDominik KubalikAssists: Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 4:08OTTTim StützleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P1 7:52OTTAustin WatsonSHGWGAssists: Dylan Gambrell · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P1 15:46OTTAustin WatsonAssists: Derick Brassard, Mark Kastelic · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P1 16:09OTTAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P2 8:34OTTClaude GirouxPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 5:17OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Claude Giroux, Tim Stützle · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–6
Penalties (24)
- P1 3:50OTTTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:50DETDominik Kubalik: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:08DETTyler Bertuzzi: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:08OTTArtem Zub: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:08DETFilip Hronek: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P1 5:08DETDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P1 7:06OTTAlex DeBrincat: Holding2 min
- P1 11:57OTTErik Brannstrom: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:46DETDavid Perron: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:52OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:31OTTMark Kastelic: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:38DETJoseph Veleno: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:38OTTTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:13DETDylan Larkin: Interference2 min
- P2 11:34OTTAustin Watson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:47DETRobby Fabbri: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:47DETRobby Fabbri: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:51DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:52OTTTim Stützle: Interference2 min
- P3 12:08OTTMathieu Joseph: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:58DETDominik Kubalik: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 16:28OTTDerick Brassard: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:28DETMoritz Seider: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:28OTTMathieu Joseph: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suter won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestVrana – Veleno – Zadina8:42
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Copp – Raymond5:02
xG 0.05–0.02 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Fabbri – Suter7:47
xG 0.00–0.39 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–0
- Perron – Bertuzzi – Larkin5:56
xG 0.04–0.91 (4%)attempts 3–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Hagg5:33
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Walman2:49
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Maatta – Seider2:06
xG 0.00–0.01 (1%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle7:08
xG 0.60–0.05 (92%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Brassard – Watson – Kastelic4:41
xG 0.42–0.07 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto7:23
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Joseph – Gauthier – Gambrell4:31
xG 0.02–0.36 (5%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub12:48
xG 0.61–0.10 (85%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson8:04
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Holden – Brannstrom6:21
xG 0.05–0.25 (15%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).