Tue, Feb 28, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Islanders 1, Minnesota Wild 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 115 | 06 | 014 | 05 | 0 | 140 |
| MIN | 115 | 08 | 06 | 02 | 1 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:15NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Scott Mayfield, Otto Koivula · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 18:00MINRyan ReavesAssists: Jordan Greenway · Bat, 0.19 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 2. NYI Simon Holmstrom stopped
- 3. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
- 4. NYI Bo Horvat stopped
- 5. MIN Frederick Gaudreau scored
- 6. NYI Kyle Palmieri stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:06MINRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:06NYIRoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:03NYIZach Parise: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Horvat – Holmstrom8:37
xG 1.21–0.23 (84%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Bailey – Johnston – Koivula2:29
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Fasching10:28
xG 0.17–0.33 (34%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Parise – Palmieri – Nelson11:49
xG 0.38–0.61 (38%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Romanov17:32
xG 1.25–0.61 (67%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech17:57
xG 0.70–0.35 (67%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Pelech – Dobson3:03
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Greenway – Duhaime9:57
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar5:35
xG 0.36–0.43 (46%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Boldy13:15
xG 0.56–0.85 (40%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov16:59
xG 0.30–0.61 (33%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton17:54
xG 1.08–0.73 (60%)attempts 21–13goals 0–0
- Merrill – Addison13:31
xG 0.60–0.59 (50%)attempts 9–17goals 1–1
- Dumba – Middleton3:03
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).