Tue, Feb 28, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Boston Bruins 4, Calgary Flames 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 25 | 04 | 18 | 13 | 420 |
| CGY | 019 | 120 | 212 | 06 | 357 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:47BOSDmitry OrlovAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Tomas Nosek · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 13:39BOSDmitry OrlovAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 1:07CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Rasmus Andersson · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 8:16CGYDillon DubeAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 9:33CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Nazem Kadri, Jakob Pelletier · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 14:07BOSPavel ZachaPPAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Jake DeBrusk · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 4:55BOSCharlie McAvoyGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.34 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:01CGYNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:01BOSTrent Frederic: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:00CGYChris Tanev: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:36BOSDmitry Orlov: Interference2 min
- P2 4:13CGYBlake Coleman: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:28BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:12BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:19BOSA.J. Greer: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:19CGYDennis Gilbert: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:21CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk7:11
xG 0.17–0.30 (36%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Hathaway – Nosek – Greer7:07
xG 0.17–0.48 (27%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Foligno – Coyle – Frederic4:39
xG 0.09–0.43 (18%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha10:52
xG 0.19–1.11 (15%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Forbort – Clifton13:16
xG 0.02–0.39 (4%)attempts 1–13goals 0–1
- Orlov – Lindholm14:02
xG 0.46–1.20 (28%)attempts 12–20goals 2–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy13:51
xG 0.20–2.08 (9%)attempts 12–29goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane9:42
xG 1.71–0.16 (91%)attempts 21–7goals 1–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pelletier9:47
xG 0.98–0.08 (92%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube8:29
xG 0.64–0.28 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Lewis – Lucic – Duehr9:47
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin13:47
xG 2.11–0.10 (96%)attempts 31–8goals 1–1
- Zadorov – Gilbert7:58
xG 0.51–0.11 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Weegar – Andersson16:19
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).