Wed, Mar 1, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
New Jersey Devils 7, Colorado Avalanche 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 312 | 310 | 17 | 729 |
| COL | 110 | 38 | 113 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:07NJDOndrej PalatAssists: Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 7:52NJDNathan BastianAssists: Michael McLeod, Damon Severson · Poke, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 11:27NJDTomas TatarAssists: Nico Hischier, Dawson Mercer · Snap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P1 19:46COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 3:13NJDDougie HamiltonAssists: Michael McLeod, Miles Wood · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 5:53NJDMiles WoodPPAssists: Erik Haula, Dawson Mercer · Snap, 0.19 xG5–1
- P2 7:32COLMikko RantanenAssists: Josh Manson, Alex Newhook · Tip-in, 0.15 xG5–2
- P2 9:00COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–3
- P2 9:36COLJ.T. CompherUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–4
- P2 16:59NJDDawson MercerGWGAssists: Ryan Graves, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.19 xG6–4
- P3 1:26COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Samuel Girard · Snap, 0.15 xG6–5
- P3 18:46NJDNico HischierENAssists: Tomas Tatar, Dawson Mercer · Backhand, 0.79 xG7–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:52COLDenis Malgin: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 3:53COLJ.T. Compher: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:26NJDOndrej Palat: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestWood – Bastian – McLeod9:27
xG 0.95–0.13 (88%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
- Tatar – Hischier – Mercer13:24
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 6–13goals 2–0
- Haula – Palat – Boqvist9:50
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Bratt – Sharangovich – Hughes9:45
xG 0.35–0.59 (37%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Bahl14:10
xG 1.04–0.30 (78%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler14:17
xG 0.78–0.66 (54%)attempts 14–20goals 2–1
- Graves – Marino18:12
xG 0.50–0.53 (48%)attempts 12–11goals 1–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin10:02
xG 0.75–0.32 (70%)attempts 16–8goals 3–1
- Compher – MacKinnon – Rantanen4:32
xG 0.23–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Eller – O'Connor2:21
xG 0.13–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Eller – Nieto – Rodrigues6:56
xG 0.01–0.06 (10%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Girard13:23
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Johnson – Toews2:38
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Toews – Byram2:38
xG 0.09–0.06 (60%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).