Wed, Mar 1, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Washington Capitals 3, Anaheim Ducks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 113 | 017 | 18 | 11 | 339 |
| ANA | 19 | 04 | 110 | 00 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:58WSHMartin FehérváryAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Dylan McIlrath · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 13:01ANATroy TerryAssists: Trevor Zegras, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 0:08WSHTom WilsonAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 4:17ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Mason McTavish, Kevin Shattenkirk · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 1:09WSHTom WilsonGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alexander Alexeyev · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:25WSHDylan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:48ANARyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:33ANATrevor Zegras: Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min
- P3 1:06ANASimon Benoit: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P3 2:11WSHMartin Fehérváry: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 5:57ANANathan Beaulieu: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:57WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:47ANAFrank Vatrano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Sheary – Aube-Kubel8:13
xG 0.57–0.25 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson10:51
xG 0.42–0.24 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Backstrom – Smith – Mantha9:07
xG 0.21–0.23 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Oshie – Milano – Strome9:56
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Alexeyev10:54
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Irwin – Fehérváry4:58
xG 0.24–0.03 (90%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Irwin – Alexeyev5:51
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Terry – Zegras9:15
xG 0.47–0.02 (97%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Carrick – Vatrano – Lundeström8:16
xG 0.12–0.02 (83%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Terry – Jones – McTavish2:13
xG 0.01–0.03 (17%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Comtois – Leason – McTavish2:12
xG 0.01–0.15 (6%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Fowler2:13
xG 0.32–0.07 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Fowler – Beaulieu13:03
xG 0.39–0.33 (55%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- White – Benoit2:04
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).