Thu, Mar 2, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 1, Boston Bruins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 07 | 111 | 127 |
| BOS | 011 | 216 | 515 | 742 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:01BOSDmitry OrlovPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, David Pastrnak · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 13:27BOSJakub LaukoGWGAssists: Brandon Carlo, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 8:35BOSPavel ZachaAssists: David Krejci, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P3 14:44BOSDavid PastrnakENAssists: David Krejci, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.74 xG0–4
- P3 15:40BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: JJ Peterka, Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 16:39BOSPatrice BergeronENAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–5
- P3 17:03BOSConnor CliftonSHAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–6
- P3 19:08BOSJakub LaukoAssists: Charlie Coyle, Matt Grzelcyk · Snap, 0.24 xG1–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:54BOSConnor Clifton: Interference2 min
- P2 5:31BUFKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:59BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:59BUFPeyton Krebs: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:35BUFUkko-Pekka Luukkonen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:32BOSBrandon Carlo: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:50BUFZemgus Girgensons: Holding2 min
- P3 16:09BOSTomas Nosek: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Jost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Okposo – Girgensons – Jost9:40
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Krebs – Peterka9:12
xG 0.25–0.49 (34%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Thompson – Quinn9:35
xG 0.25–0.72 (26%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Hinostroza – Mittelstadt – Cozens7:58
xG 0.12–0.72 (14%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Bryson – Power2:26
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Bryson – Lyubushkin9:10
xG 0.36–0.45 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Stillman – Samuelsson12:13
xG 0.65–1.12 (37%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Greer – Frederic8:47
xG 0.94–0.14 (87%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha8:22
xG 0.79–0.26 (75%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk5:40
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Nosek – Lauko8:05
xG 0.10–0.15 (39%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Carlo11:04
xG 1.14–0.33 (78%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – Clifton12:49
xG 0.76–0.17 (81%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Lindholm – McAvoy12:40
xG 0.94–0.39 (71%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).