Thu, Mar 2, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Seattle Kraken 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 316 | 110 | 09 | 12 | 537 |
| DET | 211 | 210 | 07 | 01 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:12SEAJared McCannAssists: Jordan Eberle, Matty Beniers · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 3:07DETBen ChiarotAssists: Andrew Copp, Robby Fabbri · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 5:33SEAOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Jaden Schwartz · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 12:19SEAJared McCannAssists: Vince Dunn, Eeli Tolvanen · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P1 18:39DETAdam ErneAssists: Moritz Seider, Dylan Larkin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 2:59DETJonatan BerggrenAssists: Filip Zadina, Gustav Lindstrom · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P2 6:17SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Jordan Eberle, Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
- P2 14:48DETJake WalmanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–4
- OT 3:33SEAOliver BjorkstrandPPGWGAssists: Jared McCann, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.10 xG5–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:00SEAYanni Gourde: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:00DETAdam Erne: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:24SEAJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:17DETMoritz Seider: Interference2 min
- P2 4:08DETAndrew Copp: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:42SEAAdam Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:11DETBen Chiarot: Holding2 min
- P3 2:14SEAVince Dunn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:33DETGustav Lindstrom: Holding2 min
- OT 1:37DETMoritz Seider: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg10:39
xG 0.82–0.33 (71%)attempts 14–8goals 1–2
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers9:56
xG 0.65–0.38 (63%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Gourde – Donato – Tolvanen7:30
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Sprong – Tanev – Geekie7:23
xG 0.17–0.38 (31%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen14:05
xG 0.86–0.31 (74%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Schultz – Soucy12:25
xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn15:07
xG 0.45–0.88 (34%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestVeleno – Zadina – Berggren6:17
xG 0.66–0.32 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Sundqvist – Erne – Suter6:52
xG 0.28–0.23 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Perron – Larkin – Raymond4:07
xG 0.17–0.21 (44%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Perron – Copp – Fabbri7:56
xG 0.29–0.43 (40%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Lindstrom10:55
xG 0.69–0.25 (73%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Walman – Seider14:36
xG 0.39–0.63 (38%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Chiarot – Maatta15:47
xG 0.37–1.16 (24%)attempts 9–24goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).