Thu, Mar 2, 2023·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 216 | 011 | 39 | 536 |
| CHI | 111 | 13 | 07 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:21DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 15:54CHICole GuttmanAssists: Tyler Johnson, Jarred Tinordi · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P1 17:05DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 0:26CHISeth JonesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 0:45DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Wyatt Johnston · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 18:35DALEsa LindellENAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.34 xG4–2
- P3 19:46DALRoope HintzENAssists: Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.79 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:50CHICaleb Jones: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:55DALRoope Hintz: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:00CHIJarred Tinordi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:57CHIConnor Murphy: Holding2 min
- P3 14:46DALRoope Hintz: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:50
xG 0.81–0.21 (80%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Faksa – Olofsson – Karlstrom8:34
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston10:07
xG 0.56–0.58 (49%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Seguin – Marchment – Dellandrea9:23
xG 0.10–0.33 (24%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Hakanpää2:32
xG 0.41–0.11 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen4:25
xG 0.39–0.12 (76%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Suter – Lundkvist12:50
xG 0.70–0.43 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Johnson – Raddysh – Guttman11:08
xG 0.60–0.61 (50%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Dickinson – Seney – Gust9:54
xG 0.18–0.33 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Athanasiou – Kurashev – Reichel13:40
xG 0.36–0.67 (35%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- Khaira – Anderson – Katchouk9:02
xG 0.21–0.75 (22%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Jones3:15
xG 0.16–0.07 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Murphy – Jones2:25
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Phillips14:03
xG 0.20–0.53 (27%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).