Thu, Mar 2, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Minnesota Wild 2, Vancouver Canucks 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 114 | 111 | 011 | 236 |
| VAN | 16 | 010 | 06 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:44MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 14:03VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Vitali Kravtsov, Conor Garland · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 3:40MINKirill KaprizovGWGAssists: Ryan Hartman, Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:00MINConnor Dewar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 5:11VANSheldon Dries: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:31MINKirill Kaprizov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:55VANKyle Burroughs: Holding2 min
- P2 7:05VANElias Pettersson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:17VANKyle Burroughs: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:17MINBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:47MINConnor Dewar: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:31VANTyler Myers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:54VANJ.T. Miller: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Aman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov9:49
xG 0.76–0.10 (88%)attempts 17–2goals 1–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy8:00
xG 0.62–0.15 (80%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Greenway – Duhaime5:43
xG 0.06–0.29 (18%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar8:22
xG 0.15–0.54 (22%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Dumba14:15
xG 0.76–0.48 (61%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton16:54
xG 0.70–0.67 (51%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
- Merrill – Addison10:12
xG 0.34–0.54 (38%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDries – Kravtsov – Podkolzin8:06
xG 0.52–0.42 (55%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Boeser – Garland – Dries2:01
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Joshua – Studnicka – Aman4:55
xG 0.09–0.21 (31%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Beauvillier – Pettersson – Kuzmenko12:26
xG 0.31–0.48 (40%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Wolanin9:38
xG 0.52–0.38 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Hughes2:59
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Myers – Brisebois12:37
xG 0.75–0.71 (51%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).