Thu, Mar 2, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Montréal Canadiens 2, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 17 | 05 | 19 | 221 |
| LAK | 010 | 113 | 210 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:14MTLJosh AndersonPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 7:42LAKAlex IafalloAssists: Gabriel Vilardi · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 7:27LAKGabriel VilardiAssists: Matt Roy, Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 8:30LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Quinton Byfield · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 9:39MTLDenis GurianovAssists: Mike Matheson, David Savard · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:25LAKBlake Lizotte: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:19LAKVladislav Gavrikov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:05MTLJonathan Drouin: Holding2 min
- P2 10:15MTLDavid Savard: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:55MTLJoel Edmundson: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:50LAKAdrian Kempe: Interference2 min
- P3 15:26MTLJonathan Drouin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lizotte won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Anderson – Drouin – Harvey-Pinard10:07
xG 0.45–0.46 (50%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Belzile – Pezzetta – Ylonen2:07
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Pitlick – Ylonen9:32
xG 0.04–0.56 (7%)attempts 3–8goals 0–2
- Hoffman – Gurianov – Suzuki11:39
xG 0.11–0.77 (12%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Harris – Guhle3:51
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Savard – Matheson13:53
xG 0.47–0.59 (44%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Kovacevic – Harris8:06
xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Byfield11:41
xG 1.04–0.24 (81%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Vilardi – Iafallo – Lizotte8:46
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
- Grundstrom – Kupari – Kaliyev3:18
xG 0.11–0.27 (28%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Danault – Fiala – Arvidsson12:56
xG 0.27–0.71 (28%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Walker12:16
xG 0.79–0.49 (62%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson17:41
xG 0.62–0.35 (64%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Roy – Durzi12:10
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).