Thu, Mar 2, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
St. Louis Blues 6, San Jose Sharks 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 04 | 412 | 27 | 623 |
| SJS | 210 | 09 | 16 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:50SJSAlexander BarabanovAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Mario Ferraro · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 6:31SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Erik Karlsson, Alexander Barabanov · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 2:35STLColton ParaykoAssists: Nikita Alexandrov, Josh Leivo · Deflected, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 5:21STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 9:30STLLogan BrownAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 19:00STLBrayden SchennPPGWGAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 6:36SJSSteven LorentzSHAssists: Matt Benning · Snap, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 14:52STLTyler PitlickAssists: Nikita Alexandrov · Snap, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 17:03STLKasperi KapanenENAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.69 xG6–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 4:33SJSAlexander Barabanov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:57STLSammy Blais: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:09SJSRadim Simek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:31SJSKevin Labanc: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas5:03
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Kyrou3:42
xG 0.24–0.18 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Schenn – Saad – Kapanen5:38
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Toropchenko – Alexandrov10:08
xG 0.39–0.43 (47%)attempts 5–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko18:52
xG 1.07–0.34 (76%)attempts 15–9goals 3–0
- Bortuzzo – Krug6:37
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug4:35
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSvechnikov – Gregor – Sturm9:51
xG 0.40–0.10 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Lindblom – Labanc – Lorentz8:30
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
- Bonino – Couture – Barabanov10:36
xG 0.60–0.72 (45%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Hertl – Johnsson – Zetterlund14:23
xG 0.14–0.75 (15%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Benning12:15
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Benning – MacDonald2:14
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Benning2:05
xG 0.01–0.20 (6%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).