Fri, Mar 3, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Winnipeg Jets 3, Edmonton Oilers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 09 | 313 | 328 |
| EDM | 112 | 312 | 29 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:06EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 1:44EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsUnassisted · Snap, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 9:18EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 9:58EDMKailer YamamotoGWGAssists: Klim Kostin, Brett Kulak · Snap, 0.14 xG0–4
- P3 2:26EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.17 xG0–5
- P3 6:22WPGAxel Jonsson-FjallbyAssists: David Gustafsson, Saku Maenalanen · Snap, 0.15 xG1–5
- P3 7:27EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Kailer Yamamoto · Snap, 0.09 xG1–6
- P3 11:49WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Snap, 0.25 xG2–6
- P3 12:55WPGBrenden DillonAssists: Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, Saku Maenalanen · Snap, 0.09 xG3–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:19WPGKyle Connor: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 5:51WPGKevin Stenlund: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 18:05WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:54EDMEvan Bouchard: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:21WPGMark Scheifele: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:01EDMEvan Bouchard: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:17WPGJosh Morrissey: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:58WPGLogan Stanley: Boarding2 min
- P3 7:58WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:58EDMDevin Shore: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:02EDMWarren Foegele: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:51WPGBrenden Dillon: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P3 19:34WPGSaku Maenalanen: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Ehlers7:20
xG 0.65–0.06 (91%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Maenalanen – Jonsson-Fjallby – Gustafsson5:38
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 2–1
- Stenlund – Barron – Kuhlman7:00
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor10:19
xG 0.14–0.70 (17%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk6:52
xG 0.56–0.09 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Pionk2:43
xG 0.36–0.06 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Dillon – DeMelo3:37
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Draisaitl3:12
xG 0.82–0.02 (97%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Hyman – McDavid – Ryan3:20
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – McDavid – Yamamoto2:39
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Janmark – Foegele – McLeod5:02
xG 0.10–0.04 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse12:26
xG 0.55–0.10 (84%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard7:48
xG 0.52–0.22 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Kulak – Desharnais4:39
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).