Sat, Mar 4, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
New York Rangers 2, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 113 | 13 | 226 |
| BOS | 16 | 19 | 29 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:07BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Trent Frederic · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 0:30BOSTomas NosekSHAssists: Charlie Coyle · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 7:03NYRAlexis LafrenièrePPAssists: Jacob Trouba, Vladimir Tarasenko · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 12:56BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 16:40BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Charlie McAvoy, David Krejci · Slap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 18:34NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Niko Mikkola, Kaapo Kakko · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:32BOSDerek Forbort: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:32NYRJimmy Vesey: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:32NYRFilip Chytil: Interference2 min
- P1 19:52BOSTyler Bertuzzi: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:11BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:18BOSTomas Nosek: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:12NYRAdam Fox: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:01NYRJacob Trouba: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Vesey – Lafrenière2:43
xG 0.15–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière4:42
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Kreider – Tarasenko – Zibanejad10:07
xG 0.08–0.27 (23%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Kane – Trocheck – Panarin13:55
xG 0.36–0.65 (36%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarpur – Schneider4:47
xG 0.26–0.05 (84%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Trouba – Harpur6:35
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Harpur – Fox6:00
xG 0.09–0.10 (45%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk10:28
xG 0.52–0.21 (72%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Coyle – Bertuzzi – Frederic6:44
xG 0.26–0.05 (84%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Krejci – Bertuzzi – Pastrnak2:19
xG 0.13–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- Hathaway – Nosek – Greer3:16
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – McAvoy12:14
xG 0.66–0.04 (94%)attempts 17–4goals 2–0
- Lindholm – Clifton2:16
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo12:07
xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).