Sat, Mar 4, 2023·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 03 | 116 | 013 | 132 |
| FLA | 113 | 218 | 111 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:38FLASam BennettAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Matthew Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 4:11FLAAaron EkbladPPGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Brandon Montour · Slap, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 8:51PITKris LetangPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 19:50FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Poke, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 9:53FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 5:43FLAAleksander Barkov: Interference2 min
- P1 19:53PITDanton Heinen: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:50PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:30FLAAnthony Duclair: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:00FLAEric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:33PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:52FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:11PITJason Zucker: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:27PITBryan Rust: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:27FLABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:58FLARyan Lomberg: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:58PITJosh Archibald: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:10PITDrew O'Connor: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:57FLAAleksander Barkov: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:57PITMarcus Pettersson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:57FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Luostarinen won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Guentzel12:43
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Bonino – Archibald – O'Connor2:17
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Granlund – O'Connor3:55
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rust7:56
xG 0.22–0.33 (40%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Joseph2:27
xG 0.25–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin13:03
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Joseph – Rutta8:23
xG 0.33–0.54 (37%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Barkov – Luostarinen8:39
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk7:47
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Reinhart – Lomberg – Lundell7:49
xG 0.23–0.02 (90%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Cousins – White5:39
xG 0.26–0.09 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Mahura2:38
xG 0.82–0.12 (87%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Gudas – Mahura8:08
xG 0.50–0.22 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling15:18
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).