Sat, Mar 4, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Washington Capitals 8, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 05 | 415 | 410 | 830 |
| SJS | 220 | 09 | 112 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:03SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, William Eklund · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 15:30SJSAlexander BarabanovAssists: Logan Couture, Andreas Johnsson · Snap, 0.35 xG0–2
- P2 8:46WSHCraig SmithAssists: Dylan Strome, Sonny Milano · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 11:30WSHNicolas Aube-KubelAssists: Conor Sheary, Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 15:28WSHMatt IrwinAssists: Gabriel Carlsson, Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 19:02WSHCraig SmithGWGAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Dylan Strome · Bat, 0.30 xG4–2
- P3 5:50WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 9:02SJSNico SturmAssists: Noah Gregor, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.11 xG5–3
- P3 9:11WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Tom Wilson, Gabriel Carlsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–3
- P3 16:05WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Vincent Iorio, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.14 xG7–3
- P3 17:30WSHDylan StromeAssists: Sonny Milano · Wrist, 0.19 xG8–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:53SJSTomas Hertl: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:07WSHSonny Milano: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:22WSHNic Dowd: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 5:08WSHNicolas Aube-Kubel: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:26SJSOskar Lindblom: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:45SJSKevin Labanc: Clipping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:45SJS: Game misconduct head coach0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Milano – Strome7:04
xG 0.75–0.45 (62%)attempts 6–8goals 3–0
- Backstrom – Smith – Mantha3:23
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Dowd – Sheary – Aube-Kubel10:26
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Oshie – Milano – Strome3:33
xG 0.11–0.13 (44%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Sandin12:02
xG 1.42–0.85 (63%)attempts 21–18goals 1–1
- Irwin – Carlsson7:46
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 7–10goals 3–0
- Irwin – Alexeyev4:10
xG 0.05–0.02 (72%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Johnsson – Barabanov9:46
xG 0.55–0.25 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Svechnikov – Gregor – Sturm8:58
xG 0.74–0.56 (57%)attempts 13–8goals 1–2
- Lindblom – Labanc – Lorentz6:27
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 9–4goals 0–2
- Hertl – Zetterlund – Eklund10:50
xG 0.32–0.80 (29%)attempts 14–11goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Ferraro5:20
xG 0.63–0.17 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Ferraro9:38
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Simek7:41
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).