Sat, Mar 4, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Edmonton Oilers 5, Winnipeg Jets 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 110 | 311 | 114 | 535 |
| WPG | 213 | 419 | 17 | 739 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:43EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 11:34WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Nino Niederreiter · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 15:09WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 2:57EDMMattias JanmarkSHAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 6:12EDMLeon DraisaitlUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 6:54WPGAdam LowryAssists: Morgan Barron, Brenden Dillon · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 7:16WPGKyle CapobiancoAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P2 9:18EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–4
- P2 10:45WPGMorgan BarronAssists: Josh Morrissey · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–5
- P2 19:58WPGJosh MorrisseyPPGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.04 xG4–6
- P3 2:55EDMNick BjugstadAssists: Devin Shore, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–6
- P3 19:25WPGDylan DeMeloENAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.40 xG5–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:30WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 4:26EDMMattias Janmark: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:45EDMZach Hyman: Interference2 min
- P2 9:11WPGNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 18:59EDMDarnell Nurse: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 18:59WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:59EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:10WPGMorgan Barron: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Shore – Ryan6:10
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Yamamoto6:31
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid3:53
xG 0.56–0.30 (65%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Janmark – Foegele – McLeod2:55
xG 0.09–0.37 (19%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard16:46
xG 1.48–0.39 (79%)attempts 30–13goals 2–1
- Kulak – Nurse2:14
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kulak – Broberg2:12
xG 0.05–0.02 (68%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Ehlers – Stenlund8:29
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Maenalanen – Jonsson-Fjallby – Gustafsson5:18
xG 0.17–0.08 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Lowry – Namestnikov – Barron10:08
xG 0.77–0.71 (52%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Niederreiter – Scheifele – Connor14:25
xG 0.64–0.63 (51%)attempts 19–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestCapobianco – Samberg7:51
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Dillon – DeMelo14:36
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey2:11
xG 0.09–0.30 (23%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).