Sat, Mar 4, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Minnesota Wild 3, Calgary Flames 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 18 | 012 | 213 | 333 |
| CGY | 08 | 011 | 012 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:52MINJoel Eriksson EkGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Matt Boldy · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 13:49MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Sam Steel · Bat, 0.32 xG2–0
- P3 16:30MINMatt BoldyAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:20MINKirill Kaprizov: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:46MINMathew Dumba: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:35CGYTroy Stecher: Interference2 min
- P3 7:26CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Gaudreau – Steel10:27
xG 0.89–0.31 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy10:42
xG 0.74–0.34 (69%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar8:35
xG 0.30–0.05 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov14:19
xG 0.52–0.67 (44%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Klingberg15:09
xG 0.97–0.36 (73%)attempts 13–10goals 3–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton16:13
xG 1.10–0.71 (61%)attempts 25–21goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Dumba15:42
xG 0.67–0.44 (61%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Pelletier8:43
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Pelletier3:06
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube10:06
xG 0.14–0.29 (32%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Duehr9:46
xG 0.24–0.51 (33%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tanev – Weegar2:01
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Weegar – Andersson14:37
xG 0.38–0.66 (37%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Stecher14:28
xG 0.60–0.89 (40%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).