Sat, Mar 4, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
St. Louis Blues 2, Los Angeles Kings 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 07 | 18 | 226 |
| LAK | 18 | 116 | 214 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:14LAKCarl GrundstromAssists: Matt Roy, Rasmus Kupari · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 18:05STLRobert ThomasAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 12:50LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Quinton Byfield · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 12:11STLKasperi KapanenSHAssists: Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 16:57LAKGabriel VilardiPPGWGAssists: Kevin Fiala, Drew Doughty · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 18:04LAKKevin FialaENAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.78 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:55LAKBlake Lizotte: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:50LAKCarl Grundstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:03STLMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:10LAKBlake Lizotte: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:19STLJordan Kyrou: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:14STLJosh Leivo: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Pitlick – Toropchenko – Alexandrov9:07
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Leivo – Blais – Brown7:15
xG 0.28–0.45 (38%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas12:36
xG 0.65–0.82 (44%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Schenn – Saad – Kapanen12:13
xG 0.46–0.90 (34%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug3:16
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko13:55
xG 0.64–0.68 (49%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Krug – Tucker8:32
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Fiala – Arvidsson13:30
xG 0.86–0.14 (86%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield10:52
xG 0.70–0.56 (56%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Vilardi – Iafallo – Lizotte9:44
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Kupari – Kaliyev3:43
xG 0.18–0.33 (36%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Roy15:06
xG 1.58–0.17 (90%)attempts 28–5goals 2–0
- Doughty – Anderson18:20
xG 0.87–0.67 (57%)attempts 18–20goals 0–0
- Edler – Durzi12:22
xG 0.22–0.76 (23%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).