Sun, Mar 5, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Montréal Canadiens 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 05 | 012 | 311 | 328 |
| VGK | 213 | 14 | 111 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:37VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:41VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 7:20VGKReilly SmithAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–3
- P3 2:04MTLMike MathesonAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 7:44VGKIvan BarbashevGWGAssists: Michael Amadio, Nicolas Hague · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 8:07MTLAlex BelzileAssists: Michael Pezzetta, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 8:42MTLRafael Harvey-PinardAssists: Jesse Ylonen, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.18 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:38MTLMichael Pezzetta: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:26VGKJonathan Marchessault: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:26VGKZach Whitecloud: Interference2 min
- P3 10:42MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:42VGKAlec Martinez: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Drouin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Anderson – Drouin10:55
xG 0.74–0.31 (70%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Suzuki – Ylonen – Harvey-Pinard7:02
xG 0.39–0.10 (80%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Pitlick – Ylonen5:37
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Belzile – Tierney – Pezzetta5:46
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Harris11:12
xG 0.69–0.44 (61%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
- Matheson – Allard2:04
xG 0.12–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Allard6:53
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Barbashev – Eichel11:43
xG 0.56–0.26 (69%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Blueger – Kolesar – Howden11:27
xG 0.55–0.25 (69%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Amadio8:58
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Kessel – Stephenson – Cotter9:49
xG 0.34–0.76 (31%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore13:14
xG 0.79–0.18 (82%)attempts 23–10goals 2–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo13:44
xG 0.70–0.50 (59%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Pietrangelo – Hague2:05
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).