Mon, Mar 6, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
San Jose Sharks 3, Winnipeg Jets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 17 | 07 | 18 | 12 | 324 |
| WPG | 014 | 114 | 18 | 02 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:13SJSSteven LorentzAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Kevin Labanc · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 6:05WPGNino NiederreiterAssists: Josh Morrissey, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 14:53WPGNate SchmidtAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 19:49SJSTomas HertlAssists: Erik Karlsson, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 1:21SJSLogan CoutureGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:43WPGDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min
- P1 5:43SJSJacob MacDonald: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:21SJSWilliam Eklund: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:07SJSNikolai Knyzhov: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:44WPGAdam Lowry: Interference2 min
- P2 2:44SJSNoah Gregor: Interference2 min
- P2 7:23WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:21SJSAndreas Johnsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:15SJSMario Ferraro: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:49SJSAlexander Barabanov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestLindblom – Labanc – Lorentz3:36
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Svechnikov – Gregor – Sturm4:40
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Couture – Johnsson – Barabanov6:17
xG 0.05–0.15 (25%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Hertl – Zetterlund – Eklund9:07
xG 0.13–0.78 (14%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Benning5:17
xG 0.46–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Ferraro3:38
xG 0.10–0.19 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Ferraro4:30
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Scheifele – Connor9:03
xG 0.37–0.01 (98%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Maenalanen – Stenlund – Appleton2:51
xG 0.30–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Lowry – Namestnikov – Barron3:57
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Dubois5:58
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Pionk10:51
xG 0.39–0.01 (98%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Pionk2:42
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Dillon – DeMelo10:17
xG 0.52–0.51 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).