Mon, Mar 6, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Washington Capitals 2, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 03 | 110 | 19 | 222 |
| LAK | 019 | 211 | 211 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:39WSHRasmus SandinAssists: Sonny Milano, Dylan Strome · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 13:18LAKVladislav GavrikovAssists: Kevin Fiala, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 19:27LAKPhillip DanaultAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Matt Roy · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 2:31WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 7:52LAKMikey AndersonGWGAssists: Quinton Byfield, Adrian Kempe · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 19:58LAKAdrian KempeENAssists: Alex Iafallo · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:07WSHRasmus Sandin: Holding2 min
- P1 19:52WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:06LAKKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:37WSHCraig Smith: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:03LAKSean Durzi: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:30WSHNic Dowd: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:45LAKGabriel Vilardi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:15LAKViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:34WSHSonny Milano: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:17LAKMatt Roy: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Dowd – Sheary – Aube-Kubel7:45
xG 0.13–0.19 (42%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Mantha8:01
xG 0.08–0.27 (22%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Milano – Strome9:03
xG 0.29–0.73 (29%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson7:36
xG 0.17–0.88 (16%)attempts 6–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin13:28
xG 0.33–0.78 (30%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Alexeyev – Iorio11:29
xG 0.29–0.92 (24%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Irwin – Carlsson9:41
xG 0.10–1.26 (8%)attempts 4–16goals 0–2
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Fiala – Arvidsson10:27
xG 1.22–0.13 (91%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- Vilardi – Iafallo – Lizotte9:35
xG 0.98–0.13 (88%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield10:20
xG 0.74–0.17 (82%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Grundstrom – MacEwen – Kupari5:07
xG 0.19–0.30 (38%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Roy13:11
xG 1.90–0.31 (86%)attempts 28–8goals 2–1
- Edler – Durzi8:25
xG 0.72–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson11:37
xG 0.42–0.31 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).