Tue, Mar 7, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 112 | 113 | 04 | 3 | 439 |
| MTL | 210 | 17 | 06 | 01 | 2 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:17MTLAlex BelzileAssists: Michael Pezzetta, Chris Tierney · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 16:16MTLMike HoffmanAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 16:31CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Derek Stepan, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 1:00CARBrady SkjeiAssists: Brett Pesce, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 2:49MTLMichael PezzettaAssists: Chris Tierney, Alex Belzile · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 16:22CARJesper FastAssists: Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MTL Rem Pitlick scored
- 2. CAR Brent Burns scored
- 3. MTL Nick Suzuki scored
- 4. CAR Andrei Svechnikov stopped
- 5. MTL Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 6. CAR Teuvo Teravainen scored
- 7. MTL Christian Dvorak stopped
- 8. CAR Sebastian Aho stopped
- 9. MTL Rafael Harvey-Pinard stopped
- 10. CAR Seth Jarvis stopped
- 11. MTL Josh Anderson stopped
- 12. CAR Jesperi Kotkaniemi scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:07CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:39MTLChris Wideman: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:28CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:16MTLAlex Belzile: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 3:16CARBrent Burns: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 4:42MTLJosh Anderson: Interference2 min
- P2 15:13CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:59CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Stepan – Noesen6:02
xG 0.77–0.24 (77%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Staal – Fast – Martinook11:22
xG 0.56–0.15 (78%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Necas – Kotkaniemi11:46
xG 0.40–0.69 (37%)attempts 13–7goals 1–2
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis11:51
xG 0.46–0.91 (34%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin13:52
xG 1.07–0.53 (67%)attempts 24–11goals 1–0
- Slavin – Pesce3:02
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Burns – Skjei3:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Ylonen – Harvey-Pinard9:48
xG 0.77–0.44 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Anderson – Drouin9:34
xG 0.61–0.29 (68%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Belzile – Tierney – Pezzetta6:49
xG 0.38–0.46 (46%)attempts 7–12goals 2–1
- Dvorak – Gurianov – Pitlick8:33
xG 0.06–0.32 (15%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Edmundson8:28
xG 0.56–0.43 (56%)attempts 9–13goals 3–1
- Kovacevic – Harris13:40
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Harris3:28
xG 0.00–0.12 (3%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).