Tue, Mar 7, 2023·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Florida Panthers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 09 | 16 | 08 | 123 |
| FLA | 113 | 18 | 013 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:25FLARyan LombergAssists: Josh Mahura · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 4:05FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Anthony Duclair, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 13:23VGKShea TheodorePPAssists: Jack Eichel, Reilly Smith · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:02VGKBrett Howden: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:17FLAMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:10FLANick Cousins: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:27FLARyan Lomberg: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 17:52FLARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:52VGKBrett Howden: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P3 6:05FLABrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:36VGKAlec Martinez: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Luostarinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Stephenson – Amadio2:22
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Amadio4:28
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Blueger – Kolesar – Cotter4:56
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Kessel – Amadio – Howden2:45
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Theodore2:43
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague5:29
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Martinez – Pietrangelo8:01
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Barkov – Luostarinen9:12
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Lomberg – Lundell9:01
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Staal – Cousins – White6:34
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk10:44
xG 0.66–0.58 (53%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling15:10
xG 1.29–0.45 (74%)attempts 24–12goals 0–0
- Gudas – Mahura10:29
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–1goals 1–0
- Staal – Montour14:04
xG 0.78–0.45 (63%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).