Tue, Mar 7, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Buffalo Sabres 2, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 17 | 19 | 224 |
| NYI | 08 | 117 | 214 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:00BUFDylan CozensUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 12:38NYICasey CizikasAssists: Hudson Fasching, Alexander Romanov · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 1:51NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Casey Cizikas, Alexander Romanov · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 4:59BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Owen Power, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · Snap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 7:37NYIHudson FaschingGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Otto Koivula · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:04NYIAdam Pelech: Holding2 min
- P1 13:02BUFOwen Power: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:10NYIKyle Palmieri: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:43BUFRasmus Dahlin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Girgensons – Olofsson – Jost7:10
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Thompson – Quinn10:58
xG 0.38–0.60 (39%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Okposo – Greenway – Krebs8:28
xG 0.24–0.59 (29%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Hinostroza – Mittelstadt – Cozens10:38
xG 0.35–0.86 (29%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Bryson – Dahlin14:16
xG 0.41–0.71 (36%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Clague – Lyubushkin10:14
xG 0.05–0.53 (9%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
- Jokiharju – Power16:11
xG 0.70–1.25 (36%)attempts 18–23goals 2–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParise – Palmieri – Nelson10:01
xG 0.75–0.20 (79%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Bailey – Cizikas – Fasching4:07
xG 0.51–0.03 (95%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Fasching6:13
xG 0.33–0.05 (88%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Lee – Horvat – Holmstrom5:49
xG 0.36–0.22 (63%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Romanov13:51
xG 1.16–0.47 (71%)attempts 21–16goals 2–1
- Aho – Dobson11:54
xG 0.65–0.30 (68%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock4:03
xG 0.19–0.05 (79%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).