Tue, Mar 7, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 1, Minnesota Wild 0 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 07 | 06 | 03 | 2 | 126 |
| MIN | 012 | 010 | 016 | 02 | 1 | 040 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- No goals in regulation or overtime.
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 2. CGY Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 3. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
- 4. CGY Rasmus Andersson stopped
- 5. MIN Frederick Gaudreau scored
- 6. CGY Nazem Kadri scored
- 7. MIN Matt Boldy stopped
- 8. CGY Tyler Toffoli scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:15CGYNick Ritchie: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:47MINRyan Hartman: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:47MINRyan Hartman: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:01CGYNoah Hanifin: Holding2 min
- P2 0:25MINMarcus Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:24CGYTroy Stecher: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:29CGYNick Ritchie: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:23CGYJakob Pelletier: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:23MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:41CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Ritchie9:28
xG 0.59–0.30 (66%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Pelletier9:39
xG 0.53–0.68 (44%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane10:14
xG 0.13–0.37 (26%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Dube8:04
xG 0.28–0.55 (34%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin14:47
xG 0.78–0.65 (55%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Weegar – Andersson14:39
xG 0.48–0.78 (38%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Stecher9:11
xG 0.13–0.89 (13%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy7:33
xG 0.67–0.09 (88%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov9:51
xG 0.85–0.40 (68%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar6:31
xG 0.46–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Sundqvist – Gaudreau8:10
xG 0.07–0.31 (19%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Dumba12:23
xG 0.94–0.48 (66%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton12:16
xG 0.95–0.57 (63%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Merrill – Klingberg13:01
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).