Tue, Mar 7, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
San Jose Sharks 0, Colorado Avalanche 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 02 | 05 | 06 | 013 |
| COL | 319 | 315 | 09 | 643 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:08COLCale MakarGWGAssists: Devon Toews, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 12:51COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Devon Toews, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 17:01COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 1:22COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 2:45COLDenis MalginAssists: Matt Nieto, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–5
- P2 18:21COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Cale Makar, Valeri Nichushkin · Snap, 0.21 xG0–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 15:39SJSTomas Hertl: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:53SJSFabian Zetterlund: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:25COLJack Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:18SJSMatt Benning: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:00COLBowen Byram: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:27SJSErik Karlsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:27SJSErik Karlsson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:43COLJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:40SJSJames Reimer: Holding2 min
- P3 0:00SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Barabanov – Eklund2:38
xG 0.11–0.04 (71%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lindblom – Labanc – Lorentz8:44
xG 0.09–0.33 (22%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Svechnikov – Gregor – Sturm7:24
xG 0.11–0.37 (24%)attempts 4–9goals 0–2
- Couture – Johnsson – Barabanov8:53
xG 0.17–0.46 (26%)attempts 6–12goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Benning – Ferraro2:12
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Benning9:40
xG 0.27–0.43 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
- Pouliot – Ferraro10:35
xG 0.08–0.29 (21%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin5:57
xG 0.79–0.03 (96%)attempts 11–4goals 4–0
- Cogliano – Eller – O'Connor7:18
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Nieto – Malgin – Newhook3:52
xG 0.24–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Compher – Rantanen – Rodrigues6:53
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Byram13:01
xG 0.96–0.06 (94%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar10:04
xG 0.83–0.03 (97%)attempts 17–4goals 4–0
- Toews – Girard2:22
xG 0.15–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).