Tue, Mar 7, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Anaheim Ducks 2, Seattle Kraken 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 18 | 17 | 222 |
| SEA | 210 | 115 | 26 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41SEAJamie OleksiakAssists: Jordan Eberle, Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 10:58SEAJared McCannAssists: Adam Larsson, Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 0:35ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Ryan Strome, Scott Harrington · Between legs, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 17:16SEADaniel SprongGWGAssists: Brandon Tanev, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 8:29SEAEeli TolvanenPPAssists: Jared McCann, Vince Dunn · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 18:33ANAMaxime ComtoisAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 19:42SEAJaden SchwartzENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:43ANAJakob Silfverberg: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:43SEAVince Dunn: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:03SEAWill Borgen: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:31ANANathan Beaulieu: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:56SEAJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:56ANAMax Jones: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:51SEAVince Dunn: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zegras won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – McGinn – Zegras8:48
xG 0.55–0.34 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Terry – Jones – McTavish7:21
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Vatrano – Lundeström5:47
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Strome – Terry – Zegras2:17
xG 0.03–0.07 (32%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Harrington13:19
xG 0.67–0.54 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 1–2
- Shattenkirk – Benoit13:24
xG 0.56–0.76 (43%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Beaulieu – White15:03
xG 0.49–0.83 (37%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Schwartz – Beniers2:01
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gourde – Tolvanen – Froden7:32
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers8:17
xG 0.48–0.49 (50%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Schwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg9:56
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen14:03
xG 0.73–0.50 (59%)attempts 16–19goals 1–1
- Larsson – Dunn13:21
xG 0.59–0.59 (50%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Schultz – Soucy12:16
xG 0.34–0.58 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).