Wed, Mar 8, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 210 | 03 | 17 | 320 |
| DET | 012 | 219 | 210 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:51CHITaylor RaddyshPPAssists: Lukas Reichel, Andreas Athanasiou · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 17:58CHITaylor RaddyshAssists: Cole Guttman, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 2:53DETJake WalmanAssists: Moritz Seider, Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 18:34DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Alex Chiasson, David Perron · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 6:10CHIJoey AndersonAssists: Jujhar Khaira · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 12:36DETLucas RaymondAssists: Robert Hagg, Ben Chiarot · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 15:53DETDominik KubalikGWGAssists: Gustav Lindstrom, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:38CHILukas Reichel: Holding2 min
- P1 13:32DETFilip Zadina: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:45DETJoseph Veleno: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:18CHICaleb Jones: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- P2 12:08CHINikita Zaitsev: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:28CHIPhilipp Kurashev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:11DETAlex Chiasson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kurashev won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Dickinson – Bjork – Entwistle10:53
xG 0.15–0.40 (27%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Khaira – Anderson – Katchouk8:57
xG 0.06–0.39 (14%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Johnson – Raddysh – Guttman10:50
xG 0.24–0.66 (27%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
- Athanasiou – Kurashev – Reichel11:47
xG 0.26–0.79 (25%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jones – Jones17:49
xG 0.26–0.79 (25%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Tinordi – Murphy14:28
xG 0.10–0.63 (13%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Zaitsev – Mitchell11:41
xG 0.11–1.20 (8%)attempts 3–19goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Larkin – Raymond14:16
xG 1.08–0.05 (96%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Copp – Fabbri – Zadina3:24
xG 0.61–0.23 (73%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Kubalik – Copp – Berggren3:04
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Kubalik – Copp – Zadina2:18
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Lindstrom13:06
xG 1.05–0.13 (89%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Maatta14:32
xG 0.85–0.14 (86%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Walman – Seider16:01
xG 0.93–0.36 (72%)attempts 21–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).