Wed, Mar 8, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Minnesota Wild 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 15 | 211 | 17 | 423 |
| WPG | 015 | 219 | 014 | 248 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:14MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Jake Middleton · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 7:06MINFrederick GaudreauAssists: Marcus Foligno, Oskar Sundqvist · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 7:36WPGLogan StanleyAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 8:31MINRyan HartmanGWGAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Jake Middleton · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 17:15WPGNino NiederreiterAssists: Nate Schmidt, Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.28 xG3–2
- P3 19:22MINMason ShawENAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.78 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:23MINOskar Sundqvist: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:43WPGDylan DeMelo: Interference2 min
- P2 11:16MINOskar Sundqvist: Holding2 min
- P3 10:29MINAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov10:02
xG 0.82–0.48 (63%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar6:29
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy10:56
xG 0.12–0.35 (26%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Foligno – Sundqvist – Gaudreau9:49
xG 0.27–0.94 (22%)attempts 4–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Spurgeon – Middleton13:42
xG 0.43–0.62 (41%)attempts 9–21goals 2–0
- Goligoski – Dumba16:14
xG 0.95–1.21 (44%)attempts 11–21goals 1–2
- Merrill – Klingberg13:16
xG 0.48–0.92 (34%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Namestnikov – Ehlers12:27
xG 0.73–0.20 (79%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Scheifele – Connor15:39
xG 1.01–0.77 (57%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Maenalanen – Stenlund – Gustafsson4:04
xG 0.04–0.02 (66%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Lowry – Appleton – Barron9:58
xG 0.61–0.60 (51%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Pionk10:36
xG 1.26–0.42 (75%)attempts 19–7goals 0–3
- Dillon – DeMelo10:16
xG 0.89–0.16 (84%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Morrissey3:55
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).