Thu, Mar 9, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Rangers 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 214 | 07 | 03 | 1 | 433 |
| MTL | 212 | 16 | 05 | 03 | 0 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35MTLKaiden GuhleAssists: Denis Gurianov, Rem Pitlick · Bat, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 3:16NYRAlexis LafrenièrePPAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 17:02MTLAlex BelzileAssists: Kaiden Guhle, Chris Wideman · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 0:48NYRJacob TroubaAssists: Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 13:20MTLJosh AndersonSHAssists: Chris Tierney · Snap, 0.28 xG2–3
- P2 14:31NYRPatrick KanePPAssists: Jacob Trouba, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MTL Rem Pitlick stopped
- 2. NYR Kaapo Kakko stopped
- 3. MTL Nick Suzuki stopped
- 4. NYR Mika Zibanejad scored
- 5. MTL Alex Belzile stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:53MTLKaiden Guhle: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:12MTLRem Pitlick: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:59MTLAnthony Richard: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:33MTLRem Pitlick: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:53NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:25NYRPatrick Kane: Slashing2 min
- OT 3:33NYRAdam Fox: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Chytil
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Tarasenko – Zibanejad11:10
xG 0.59–0.02 (96%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Brodzinski5:25
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Kane – Trocheck – Panarin13:33
xG 0.32–0.54 (37%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière7:03
xG 0.17–0.79 (18%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHarpur – Schneider13:41
xG 0.36–0.20 (65%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Mikkola – Fox16:03
xG 0.71–0.68 (51%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
- Trouba – Miller16:46
xG 0.28–1.04 (21%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Gurianov – Pitlick7:10
xG 0.49–0.09 (85%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Belzile – Richard – Pezzetta5:45
xG 0.43–0.03 (93%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Anderson – Drouin11:06
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Ylonen – Harvey-Pinard12:38
xG 0.06–0.59 (9%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Kovacevic15:06
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Guhle4:06
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Wideman – Edmundson3:35
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).