Thu, Mar 9, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 0, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 06 | 07 | 06 | 019 |
| CAR | 16 | 015 | 08 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:09CARAndrei SvechnikovPPGWGAssists: Martin Necas, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:19PHIKevin Hayes: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:05PHIIvan Provorov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:27PHINick Seeler: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:27CARStefan Noesen: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:01PHIMorgan Frost: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:17CARJesper Fast: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:20PHIKieffer Bellows: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Necas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Cates – Foerster9:05
xG 0.61–0.21 (74%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Tippett – Frost – Farabee12:57
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Bellows – Laczynski6:20
xG 0.02–0.07 (20%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Desnoyers10:39
xG 0.06–0.53 (10%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Braun – Seeler9:56
xG 0.06–0.12 (33%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim12:55
xG 0.52–0.73 (42%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
- Provorov – York16:54
xG 0.47–0.72 (40%)attempts 7–23goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Svechnikov – Jarvis10:38
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stepan – Noesen5:59
xG 0.09–0.02 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook12:36
xG 0.34–0.36 (48%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Necas – Kotkaniemi10:57
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Gostisbehere10:29
xG 0.64–0.11 (85%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin16:32
xG 0.66–0.31 (68%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce15:25
xG 0.30–0.67 (31%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).