Thu, Mar 9, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
San Jose Sharks 2, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 115 | 111 | 08 | 234 |
| STL | 19 | 19 | 212 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:23SJSErik KarlssonAssists: Alexander Barabanov, Andreas Johnsson · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 12:31STLTorey KrugAssists: Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 10:06STLSammy BlaisAssists: Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 14:31SJSTomas HertlAssists: Alexander Barabanov · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 2:53STLJakub VranaGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 15:02STLRobert ThomasPPAssists: Brandon Saad, Pavel Buchnevich · Slap, 0.13 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:56STLRobert Thomas: Holding2 min
- P1 14:15STLSammy Blais: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:03SJSAlexander Barabanov: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:21STLColton Parayko: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:39SJSSteven Lorentz: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:13STLKasperi Kapanen: Broken stick2 min
- P3 14:07SJSFabian Zetterlund: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:06SJSErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Buchnevich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Zetterlund – Eklund10:43
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Lindblom – Labanc – Lorentz3:02
xG 0.12–0.14 (45%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Svechnikov – Gregor – Sturm5:09
xG 0.14–0.21 (39%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Couture – Johnsson – Barabanov10:05
xG 0.41–0.68 (37%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Ferraro2:19
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Benning11:55
xG 0.56–0.53 (52%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Pouliot – Ferraro12:40
xG 0.67–0.73 (48%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestKyrou – Thomas – Toropchenko9:25
xG 0.56–0.39 (59%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Schenn – Saad – Blais9:54
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Leivo – Walker – Alexandrov6:20
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Vrana – Kapanen9:11
xG 0.55–0.51 (52%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Faulk – Krug2:16
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko12:30
xG 0.51–0.64 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Krug – Rosen11:22
xG 0.52–0.67 (44%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).