Sat, Mar 11, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 2, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 215 | 02 | 014 | 231 |
| BOS | 011 | 218 | 19 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:36DETAndrew CoppSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 4:32DETAlex ChiassonPPAssists: David Perron, Dylan Larkin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 12:43BOSHampus LindholmAssists: Charlie Coyle, Trent Frederic · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 14:11BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Dmitry Orlov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 13:54BOSGarnet HathawayGWGAssists: A.J. Greer, Tomas Nosek · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:10DETMoritz Seider: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:19BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:23DETRobert Hagg: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:18DETJoseph Veleno: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:28DETDylan Larkin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:23BOSHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestVeleno – Zadina – Berggren9:02
xG 0.31–0.19 (63%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Erne – Czarnik7:24
xG 0.40–0.27 (59%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Kubalik – Copp – Suter3:13
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Larkin – Suter – Raymond6:58
xG 0.14–0.06 (68%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hagg – Lindstrom9:17
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Walman – Seider15:19
xG 0.43–0.81 (35%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Maatta14:36
xG 0.16–0.62 (21%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Bertuzzi – Pastrnak12:11
xG 1.03–0.36 (74%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Nosek – Greer7:53
xG 0.69–0.35 (66%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Coyle – Zacha – Frederic11:16
xG 0.32–0.32 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk10:26
xG 0.16–0.26 (39%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – McAvoy4:29
xG 0.40–0.06 (86%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy10:45
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Orlov – Clifton8:33
xG 0.40–0.20 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).