Sat, Mar 11, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 114 | 07 | 011 | 132 |
| PIT | 16 | 115 | 311 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:52PITRickard RakellAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Mikael Granlund · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 10:04PHIKieffer BellowsAssists: Justin Braun · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 6:49PITSidney CrosbyPPGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 14:24PITJason ZuckerAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 18:22PITJake GuentzelENAssists: Jeff Carter, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.59 xG1–4
- P3 19:04PITMikael GranlundAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Jan Rutta · Snap, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 3:37PHIScott Laughton: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:11PHITyson Foerster: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 15:27PITMikael Granlund: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:32PHICam York: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:17PITMarcus Pettersson: Holding2 min
- P3 11:57PITBryan Rust: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Farabee – Foerster10:06
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Laughton – Tippett – Frost11:07
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Laczynski – Cates5:28
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Bellows – Desnoyers4:47
xG 0.06–0.42 (12%)attempts 3–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Seeler10:21
xG 0.23–0.13 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Provorov – York15:20
xG 0.41–0.62 (40%)attempts 12–14goals 0–2
- Ristolainen – Sanheim14:46
xG 0.12–0.39 (24%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Rakell – O'Connor9:11
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Nylander10:30
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel11:07
xG 0.39–0.31 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Carter – Archibald – Heinen5:29
xG 0.03–0.07 (30%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson17:03
xG 0.90–0.55 (62%)attempts 21–13goals 2–0
- Kulikov – Rutta9:01
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
- Petry – Dumoulin16:16
xG 0.13–0.29 (30%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).