Sat, Mar 11, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
New Jersey Devils 3, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 211 | 016 | 110 | 337 |
| MTL | 08 | 19 | 07 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:24NJDNathan BastianAssists: Miles Wood · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 18:59NJDNico HischierGWGAssists: Damon Severson, Dawson Mercer · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 18:23MTLDenis GurianovAssists: Rem Pitlick · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 18:30NJDTomas TatarENAssists: Nico Hischier, Dougie Hamilton · Backhand, 0.77 xG3–1
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Drouin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestWood – Bastian – McLeod8:52
xG 0.82–0.25 (76%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Haula – Palat – Bratt12:19
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Tatar – Hischier – Mercer14:35
xG 0.83–0.68 (55%)attempts 26–8goals 1–1
- Meier – Boqvist – Hughes15:33
xG 0.28–0.53 (35%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Severson15:21
xG 1.25–0.55 (70%)attempts 20–13goals 2–1
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler15:43
xG 0.63–0.61 (51%)attempts 22–16goals 0–0
- Graves – Marino19:28
xG 0.49–0.89 (36%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Belzile – Richard – Pezzetta7:49
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Ylonen – Harvey-Pinard14:31
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Anderson – Drouin15:13
xG 0.70–0.72 (49%)attempts 11–31goals 0–0
- Tierney – Gurianov – Pitlick11:59
xG 0.42–0.77 (35%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Guhle6:37
xG 1.30–0.20 (87%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Matheson – Kovacevic9:39
xG 0.52–0.44 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Wideman – Edmundson4:48
xG 0.10–0.05 (65%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).