Sat, Mar 11, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Dallas Stars 4, Seattle Kraken 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 011 | 26 | 17 | 11 | 425 |
| SEA | 014 | 19 | 26 | 02 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:51DALRoope HintzAssists: Esa Lindell, Jani Hakanpää · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 7:41SEAJordan EberleAssists: Matty Beniers, Vince Dunn · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 10:29DALMason MarchmentAssists: Ryan Suter, Ty Dellandrea · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 10:03SEARyan DonatoAssists: Daniel Sprong, Carson Soucy · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 16:35SEAOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 18:50DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 3:26DALMiro HeiskanenGWGAssists: Max Domi, Evgenii Dadonov · Snap, 0.19 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:38SEAVince Dunn: High sticking2 min
- P1 2:49DALRoope Hintz: Holding2 min
- P3 5:24DALTy Dellandrea: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 14:46DALJason Robertson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:47
xG 0.94–0.29 (76%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Domi – Marchment – Dellandrea10:45
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Faksa – Olofsson – Kiviranta7:59
xG 0.07–0.14 (34%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston10:50
xG 0.12–0.52 (19%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Hanley6:50
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell18:10
xG 0.53–0.39 (57%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
- Miller – Heiskanen11:37
xG 0.19–0.23 (44%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Sprong – Tanev7:40
xG 0.29–0.05 (86%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers10:31
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 1–2
- Gourde – Tolvanen – Froden10:09
xG 0.27–0.35 (43%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg11:49
xG 0.37–0.77 (33%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn17:59
xG 0.66–0.28 (70%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
- Schultz – Soucy11:19
xG 0.48–0.83 (37%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
- Oleksiak – Borgen14:04
xG 0.22–0.61 (27%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).