Sat, Mar 11, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Ottawa Senators 2, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 05 | 07 | 28 | 220 |
| VAN | 110 | 28 | 212 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:05VANAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: J.T. Miller, Tyler Myers · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 4:26VANJ.T. MillerSHAssists: Nils Aman · Snap, 0.36 xG0–2
- P2 10:27VANNils AmanGWGAssists: Dakota Joshua, Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 6:50VANSheldon DriesAssists: Dakota Joshua, Guillaume Brisebois · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
- P3 13:39OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Thomas Chabot, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 15:44OTTNick HoldenAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 19:45VANAndrei KuzmenkoENAssists: Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.75 xG2–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 8:32OTTShane Pinto: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:55OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:55VANKyle Burroughs: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:24OTTShane Pinto: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:23VANAnthony Beauvillier: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:00OTTDrake Batherson: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:51OTTPatrick Brown: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:05VANTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:05OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:45OTTDerick Brassard: Boarding2 min
- P3 9:51VANNils Aman: Holding2 min
- P3 18:02VANQuinn Hughes: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:12OTTClaude Giroux: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:34OTTThomas Chabot: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle11:05
xG 1.25–0.72 (63%)attempts 21–7goals 1–2
- Brassard – Watson – Kastelic4:06
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brown – Joseph – Gambrell3:44
xG 0.01–0.11 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto8:43
xG 0.14–0.60 (19%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Sanderson6:18
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Chabot – Chychrun7:46
xG 0.52–0.23 (69%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Holden – Chychrun7:09
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBeauvillier – Pettersson – Kuzmenko7:18
xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Joshua – Garland – Aman8:22
xG 0.47–0.56 (46%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Dries – Kravtsov – Podkolzin4:53
xG 0.04–0.33 (11%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser8:30
xG 0.29–0.65 (31%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJuulsen – Hughes11:50
xG 0.88–0.25 (78%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Burroughs – Wolanin7:25
xG 0.33–0.30 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes2:57
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).