Sat, Mar 11, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Minnesota Wild 5, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 15 | 113 | 311 | 529 |
| SJS | 018 | 111 | 18 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:44MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Hartman · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 10:19SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 18:03MINFrederick GaudreauPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Marcus Foligno · Slap, 0.36 xG2–1
- P3 0:30MINMarcus JohanssonGWGAssists: John Klingberg, Matt Boldy · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 8:36SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Logan Couture, Alexander Barabanov · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 11:00MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Ryan Hartman, John Klingberg · Slap, 0.37 xG4–2
- P3 18:03MINMatt BoldyENAssists: Jared Spurgeon · Backhand, 0.37 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 17:40MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:28SJSTomas Hertl: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:47SJSNoah Gregor: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:49MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:04MINJon Merrill: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:18SJSEvgeny Svechnikov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:27MINJohn Klingberg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:36MINMats Zuccarello: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 9:40SJSWilliam Eklund: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar6:55
xG 0.20–0.31 (38%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Foligno – Sundqvist – Gaudreau10:56
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy10:44
xG 0.42–0.73 (37%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Steel11:06
xG 0.31–0.94 (25%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Spurgeon – Middleton13:35
xG 0.43–0.61 (41%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
- Merrill – Klingberg14:49
xG 0.35–0.84 (29%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Dumba17:00
xG 0.44–1.19 (27%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Johnsson – Barabanov11:32
xG 1.03–0.21 (83%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Hertl – Zetterlund – Eklund10:39
xG 0.97–0.50 (66%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Lindblom – Labanc – Lorentz4:24
xG 0.14–0.00 (98%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Labanc – Gregor – Sturm2:55
xG 0.13–0.12 (51%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPouliot – Ferraro12:52
xG 1.22–0.29 (81%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Knyzhov15:18
xG 0.99–0.44 (69%)attempts 23–9goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Benning9:20
xG 0.15–0.33 (31%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).