Sat, Mar 11, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Nashville Predators 2, Los Angeles Kings 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 110 | 08 | 07 | 05 | 1 | 230 |
| LAK | 110 | 06 | 08 | 03 | 0 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:32LAKMikey AndersonAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Alex Iafallo · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:04NSHTommy NovakPPAssists: Cody Glass · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. LAK Gabriel Vilardi stopped
- 2. NSH Matt Duchene scored
- 3. LAK Adrian Kempe stopped
- 4. NSH Philip Tomasino stopped
- 5. LAK Viktor Arvidsson stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:23NSHDante Fabbro: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:00LAKAlex Iafallo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:20NSHRoman Josi: Holding2 min
- P3 5:53LAKMatt Roy: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:53NSHKiefer Sherwood: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:20LAKAdrian Kempe: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P3 17:23NSHYakov Trenin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lizotte won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Jankowski – McCarron – Afanasyev7:17
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Duchene – Glass – Tomasino12:00
xG 0.46–0.59 (44%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista10:23
xG 0.45–0.61 (42%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith10:57
xG 0.03–0.36 (7%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro13:08
xG 0.85–0.71 (55%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Josi – Barrie3:29
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Foote11:10
xG 0.30–0.48 (38%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Moore12:52
xG 0.62–0.31 (66%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Vilardi – Iafallo – Lizotte10:02
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield10:43
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – MacEwen – Kupari8:20
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Roy16:23
xG 0.85–0.63 (58%)attempts 19–19goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson19:17
xG 0.59–0.48 (55%)attempts 23–14goals 1–0
- Edler – Walker10:07
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).