Sun, Mar 12, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 16 | 011 | 112 | 00 | 229 |
| PIT | 115 | 111 | 08 | 11 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:03PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 11:18NYRBarclay GoodrowAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Tyler Motte · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 1:21PITJason ZuckerAssists: Brian Dumoulin · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 9:09NYRChris KreiderAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 1:38PITKris LetangPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:46NYRBarclay Goodrow: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:34NYRVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 5:20NYRMika Zibanejad: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:34PITMikael Granlund: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:01PITEvgeni Malkin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:03NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:03PITMarcus Pettersson: Cross checking2 min
- OT 1:12NYRArtemi Panarin: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Vesey – Motte9:41
xG 0.96–0.21 (82%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Kane – Kreider – Trocheck3:57
xG 0.43–0.09 (82%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière3:11
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kreider – Trocheck – Kakko6:36
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarpur – Schneider11:26
xG 0.61–0.21 (74%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Fox – Miller2:01
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Mikkola – Fox14:24
xG 0.68–0.61 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel13:28
xG 1.21–0.44 (73%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Nylander13:09
xG 1.20–0.69 (64%)attempts 17–12goals 0–2
- Granlund – Rakell – O'Connor9:16
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Archibald – Heinen6:52
xG 0.00–0.45 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson16:49
xG 1.34–0.16 (89%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Letang – Rutta2:36
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin2:41
xG 0.08–0.10 (45%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).