Sun, Mar 12, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Carolina Hurricanes 0, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 014 | 09 | 032 |
| NJD | 29 | 110 | 04 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:44NJDJack HughesGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 8:47NJDJesper BrattAssists: Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 4:31NJDJesper BrattAssists: Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:52CARJordan Martinook: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:21CARJesse Puljujarvi: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:21NJDRyan Graves: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:36NJDErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:02NJDMiles Wood: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 1:27NJDTimo Meier: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:31CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Puljujarvi – Jarvis11:03
xG 1.48–0.45 (77%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stepan – Noesen6:08
xG 0.32–0.27 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook11:57
xG 0.22–0.31 (42%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Necas – Kotkaniemi9:34
xG 0.17–0.49 (26%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin11:17
xG 0.97–0.48 (67%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- de Haan – Slavin2:21
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- de Haan – Gostisbehere8:56
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod6:48
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Meier – Bratt – Hughes8:49
xG 0.43–0.58 (42%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Tatar – Hischier – Mercer10:37
xG 0.32–0.67 (32%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Haula – Palat – Boqvist8:47
xG 0.15–0.56 (21%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler13:52
xG 0.68–0.48 (59%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Severson – Bahl11:10
xG 0.37–0.62 (38%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- Graves – Marino13:23
xG 0.50–0.94 (35%)attempts 11–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).