Sun, Mar 12, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Ottawa Senators 1, Calgary Flames 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 012 | 113 | 06 | 131 |
| CGY | 216 | 28 | 115 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:09CGYRasmus AnderssonSHAssists: Mikael Backlund, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 18:26CGYElias LindholmPPGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, Rasmus Andersson · Snap, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 5:55OTTTim StützleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 7:03CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Nazem Kadri, Tyler Toffoli · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 13:08CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 5:30CGYTrevor LewisAssists: Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:13OTTDylan Gambrell: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:21CGYTyler Toffoli: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:41OTTErik Brannstrom: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:29CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:45CGYNazem Kadri: Interference2 min
- P3 7:01OTTAustin Watson: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:31CGYTroy Stecher: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGauthier – Gambrell – Kelly4:54
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Watson – Kastelic – Kelly4:06
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Watson – Gambrell – Kelly2:36
xG 0.01–0.17 (7%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto9:38
xG 0.24–0.73 (24%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Zub2:22
xG 0.14–0.01 (96%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brannstrom10:47
xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Chychrun3:11
xG 0.06–0.31 (18%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Dube8:54
xG 0.80–0.47 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Duehr6:18
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane12:25
xG 0.59–0.44 (57%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Pelletier7:45
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin13:23
xG 1.52–0.12 (93%)attempts 27–8goals 3–0
- Zadorov – Stecher12:57
xG 0.78–0.52 (60%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Weegar – Andersson14:36
xG 0.55–0.58 (49%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).