Mon, Mar 13, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Colorado Avalanche 8, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 49 | 216 | 28 | 833 |
| MTL | 13 | 16 | 210 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:59COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Logan O'Connor, Devon Toews · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 6:09COLBowen ByramAssists: Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 8:05COLMatt NietoAssists: Lars Eller, Logan O'Connor · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P1 16:00COLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Deflected, 0.16 xG4–0
- P1 18:58MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Johnathan Kovacevic, Nick Suzuki · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–1
- P2 1:48COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.23 xG5–1
- P2 3:58COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen · Backhand, 0.15 xG6–1
- P2 19:18MTLDenis GurianovPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–2
- P3 8:09COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.19 xG7–2
- P3 8:48MTLJesse YlonenAssists: Chris Wideman, Alex Belzile · Tip-in, 0.14 xG7–3
- P3 10:35MTLMike MathesonAssists: Josh Anderson, David Savard · Snap, 0.05 xG7–4
- P3 13:09COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.15 xG8–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 15:22MTLMike Matheson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:48COLDevon Toews: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:46COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:46COLJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:46MTLKaiden Guhle: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:24MTLRafael Harvey-Pinard: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:42MTLJosh Anderson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:23MTLMichael Pezzetta: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:23COLBowen Byram: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:23MTLMichael Pezzetta: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:23COLBowen Byram: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:16MTLChris Wideman: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Belzile
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Lehkonen – Nichushkin5:49
xG 0.77–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Rodrigues12:45
xG 1.05–0.67 (61%)attempts 16–12goals 2–1
- Cogliano – Eller – O'Connor11:05
xG 0.20–0.05 (79%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Compher – Nichushkin – Rodrigues2:01
xG 0.00–0.00 (5%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Byram13:06
xG 0.67–0.04 (95%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar15:27
xG 1.33–0.89 (60%)attempts 18–18goals 3–2
- Makar – Byram2:26
xG 0.30–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Anderson – Drouin4:01
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Belzile – Pezzetta – Ylonen2:13
xG 0.24–0.09 (74%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Gurianov – Pitlick – Suzuki3:50
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Belzile – Richard – Pezzetta2:21
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Edmundson2:25
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Wideman – Guhle2:38
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Wideman – Edmundson13:33
xG 0.28–0.54 (34%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).