Mon, Mar 13, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Dallas Stars 5, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 214 | 212 | 16 | 532 |
| SEA | 110 | 115 | 03 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:13DALEvgenii DadonovAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 5:43DALJamie BennPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 15:00SEAYanni GourdeAssists: Vince Dunn, Jesper Froden · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 3:03DALJoe PavelskiPPGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Miro Heiskanen · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 13:28SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Vince Dunn · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 13:42DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 0:40DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.05 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:34SEAYanni Gourde: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:36SEAJamie Oleksiak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:08DALJani Hakanpää: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:33DALMason Marchment: Holding2 min
- P2 19:15SEAAdam Larsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:31SEAWill Borgen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Olofsson – Kiviranta8:52
xG 0.34–0.07 (83%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston10:22
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 14–9goals 2–1
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:17
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Domi – Marchment – Dellandrea12:31
xG 0.52–1.05 (33%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Hanley11:08
xG 0.46–0.17 (72%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Miller – Heiskanen14:55
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Suter – Heiskanen3:23
xG 0.27–0.47 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Tolvanen – Froden7:11
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers14:40
xG 0.75–0.71 (52%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg10:47
xG 0.05–0.15 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Donato – Sprong – Tanev4:46
xG 0.05–0.21 (19%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Megna13:10
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn17:21
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen11:11
xG 0.24–0.51 (32%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).